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Post by person01 on May 20, 2018 22:50:25 GMT
are they taking them in Dublin I cant believe only 26% of people will vote No I know that polls are misleading since they usually only ask about a thousand people and sometimes with leading or biased questions what is everyone's thoughts on the matter I live in the north so its hard to tell the political climate although while travelling to a pro life event in Donegal I counted 79 pro life poster and only 9 pro abort what do youse think have you been asked to take part in a poll.
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Post by cato on May 20, 2018 23:34:13 GMT
Donegal is one of the most pro life areas in Ireland but unfortunately it's not typical of the nation generally.
If todays Sunday Times poll is accurate then there will be a landslide 68% Yes vote when undecideds are excluded. That would be a worse defeat than the Gay marriage vote.
I do suspect there are some undeclared No voters who may be unwilling to declare their real opinions but who will vote no. But that was also the case the last time. I knew a few people in that category but it didn't really make a difference.
If the polls are right it will be a crushing defeat. If they are wrong then Irish pollsters will be looking for new jobs next Saturday. It is a cliche but the only poll that counts is the vote on the 25th. It is still all to play for.
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Post by cato on May 21, 2018 8:52:00 GMT
Rte had a poll expert on The Week in Politics last night who made some interesting points about how it is much more likely the Don't knows will generally swing to a No position.
It has been a heated campaign and at times nasty. I have been deeply saddened at some of the people I know who are voting yes, people I respect but , who have disapointed me. I think perhaps more people than normal are keeping their views private for fear of ridicule or causing offence. The establishment do have an interest in demotivating and depressing the No side. It is important not to despair.
The polls in the Sunday Times released yesterday are not completely up to date but were 5 days old , that is before the Referendum debate on RTE which seems to have been a No victory.[br
One of the unexpected things in the poll for me was the finding 25% of Sinn Fein Supporters will defy their leadership and vote No. The brave stance of Peadar Toibin has it seems inspired some resistence.
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That week in politics programme should be on the RTE player. The pollster comes on in the final 5 minutes or so.
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Post by Séamus on May 21, 2018 11:13:20 GMT
Donegal is one of the most pro life .... Etc If todays Sunday Times poll is accurate then there will be a landslide 68% Yes vote when undecideds are excluded. That would be a worse defeat than the Gay marriage vote. ... Etc. 'Damning' polls can work against the winning side; you could more-or-less see the results of similar overconfidence in the anti-Trump camp towards the end of the last American election campaign. They were anti Trump, not necessarily pro-the-other, and many possibly didn't feel any need to vote. It's interesting that someone from GOOGLE, in relation to the advertising ban, said that the NOs are bound to win anyway-and we know which side they're probably on-false security can actually be a tactic in any country (except Russia) |
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