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Post by cato on Nov 5, 2019 14:05:22 GMT
A couple of weeks ago it looked like the Johnson government would get bogged down for the next 6 months discussing his latest deal with a less than enthusiastic parliament adding amendments to render it unrecognisable. Thanks to the Scottish Nationalists and the Liberal Democrats agreeing to an early general election Johnson now has a chance to get a majority government and get his deal through early next year. Again many had predicted this would not happen as Labour fear a public backlash against their fence sitting.
The obnoxious John Bercow,the most biased speaker ever,had resigned and campaigning has already begun for a pre Christmas election .Although the Tories have a current significant poll lead nothing is certain in these things. The Tories will probably lose Scottish seats and Nigel Farage is planning to challenge them in every seat , possibly splitting the Brexit vote and electing a hard left government by default.
The UK first past the post system is a fascinating (but unfair) system where a party that gains around 35% of the overall vote can gain a landslide victory. At this stage it appears the Tories will gain a majority or else we will be back to a hung parliament. Less likely is a Labour victory but a remainer alliance government is not impossible. Election night will make some interesting viewing.
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Post by cato on Nov 7, 2019 12:42:05 GMT
The UK postal workers union which is very left wing has threatened to strike before the election hitting postal votes. It can be assumed many seniors will vote Conservative or Brexit party.
This type of threatened interference in the political process has received very little media coverage to date. The same media obsess how social media ads from mysterious dark forces fool people into voting for Trump and Brexit. Or they get into a faux outrage over remarks made by Jacob Rees Mogg about ignoring bad fire directions that killed scores of people.
I think the real reason is that JRM is not permitted to make any remarks about working class people is he is rather richer than they are. His actual remarks are correct if anyone bothered to read them.
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Post by Stephen on Nov 13, 2019 9:46:43 GMT
On (12th of November) Tuesday night a YouGov Poll for The Times showed that in the 317 seats where the Brexit Party was withdrawing, its voters were switching overwhelmingly to the Tories.
It put them on 42 per cent, with Labour on 28 and the Lib Dems on 15. The question I have will the BREXIT Party get any seats and will large majority Conservative government be a good/bad thing for Brexit?
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Post by cato on Nov 13, 2019 13:06:44 GMT
On (12th of November) Tuesday night a YouGov Poll for The Times showed that in the 317 seats where the Brexit Party was withdrawing, its voters were switching overwhelmingly to the Tories. It put them on 42 per cent, with Labour on 28 and the Lib Dems on 15. The question I have will the BREXIT Party get any seats and will large majority Conservative government be a good/bad thing for Brexit? It is possible the Brexit party will get no seats even if they take a significant percentage of the vote thanks to first past the post. Using the PR system they are the biggest UK party in the European parliament ironically enough! On 42% it would be a Tory landslide victory. Without a Tory majority Brexit is extremely unlikely. It's really the only way to get Brexit through now. I would be suprised if the Tories get 42% on election night but anything is possible . Their campaign to date has been cack handed appealing mainly to wealthy people who will inevitably vote Conservative any way. They need to speak more to patriotic Labour Brexit supporters if they are to gain seats and to replace seats they may lose in Scotland. |
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Post by Stephen on Nov 14, 2019 10:56:53 GMT
On (12th of November) Tuesday night a YouGov Poll for The Times showed that in the 317 seats where the Brexit Party was withdrawing, its voters were switching overwhelmingly to the Tories. It put them on 42 per cent, with Labour on 28 and the Lib Dems on 15. The question I have will the BREXIT Party get any seats and will large majority Conservative government be a good/bad thing for Brexit? It is possible the Brexit party will get no seats even if they take a significant percentage of the vote thanks to first past the post. Using the PR system they are the biggest UK party in the European parliament ironically enough! On 42% it would be a Tory landslide victory. Without a Tory majority Brexit is extremely unlikely. It's really the only way to get Brexit through now. I would be suprised if the Tories get 42% on election night but anything is possible . Their campaign to date has been cack handed appealing mainly to wealthy people who will inevitably vote Conservative any way. They need to speak more to patriotic Labour Brexit supporters if they are to gain seats and to replace seats they may lose in Scotland. So in your opinion they would be better stealing the Brexit Party plan. To me it would have made sense to give the impossible seats to the Brexit Party and conservatives could have the rest. But I imagine the conservative party are looking past this election and care much more about the tribe than Brexit/UK. |
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Post by cato on Nov 14, 2019 13:14:07 GMT
br]So in your opinion they would be better stealing the Brexit Party plan. To me it would have made sense to give the impossible seats to the Brexit Party and conservatives could have the rest. But I imagine the conservative party are looking past this election and care much more about the tribe than Brexit/UK.[/quote]
The Brexit party plan is to reject the current (Johnson) plan and to leave the EU without an agreement. That option doesn't appear to have anything near widespread support in the UK at present. The UK would also still at some point need to negotiate a future comprehensive trade/ political/ security relationship with the EU.
The current deal would if passed by a Tory government in January lead to the UK leaving the EU. Getting out is the first vital step to resolving this issue. If that step is never taken then Brexit fails. Once you are out of the EU you can then build on that position to gain concessions. Being out changes the whole argument . The remain second referendum cause will have been defeated . No other party backs the current deal.
The Brexit party is a radical free market party further to the right on the economy than the Tories. I know many old style Labour Brexiteers hate the Tories but I can't see them voting for a more right wing alternative either. I do like Nigel Farage but I fear the Brexit party is at best a distraction and at worst may help a Marxist Corbyn government to gain victory and end the hope of Brexit forever. That would be ironical.
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Post by Stephen on Nov 14, 2019 14:01:29 GMT
br]So in your opinion they would be better stealing the Brexit Party plan. To me it would have made sense to give the impossible seats to the Brexit Party and conservatives could have the rest. But I imagine the conservative party are looking past this election and care much more about the tribe than Brexit/UK. The Brexit party plan is to reject the current (Johnson) plan and to leave the EU without an agreement. That option doesn't appear to have anything near widespread support in the UK at present. The UK would also still at some point need to negotiate a future comprehensive trade/ political/ security relationship with the EU. The current deal would if passed by a Tory government in January lead to the UK leaving the EU. Getting out is the first vital step to resolving this issue. If that step is never taken then Brexit fails. Once you are out of the EU you can then build on that position to gain concessions. Being out changes the whole argument . The remain second referendum cause will have been defeated . No other party backs the current deal. The Brexit party is a radical free market party further to the right on the economy than the Tories. I know many old style Labour Brexiteers hate the Tories but I can't see them voting for a more right wing alternative either. I do like Nigel Farage but I fear the Brexit party is at best a distraction and at worst may help a Marxist Corbyn government to gain victory and end the hope of Brexit forever. That would be ironical. [/quote] I am very interested in following what Nigel Farage is going with the Brexit Party. I think he will take alot more Labour votes in Labour strong holds than conservative ones. He also has many ex labour party members running for his party and doesn't really have any comprehensive Manifesto (which he rejects, which does suit him). The Brexit Party definitely are keeping the Conservatives to task about Brexit. I suppose we will wait and see do they get any seats or help labour. Do you think Boris statements about when they are leaving/ Canada style agreement are ment for Brexit Party voter's/Nigel. I don't think there is any chance Corbyn will become PM! |
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Post by cato on Nov 15, 2019 14:16:10 GMT
]I am very interested in following what Nigel Farage is going with the Brexit Party. I think he will take alot more Labour votes in Labour strong holds than conservative ones. He also has many ex labour party members running for his party and doesn't really have any comprehensive Manifesto (which he rejects, which does suit him).
The Brexit Party definitely are keeping the Conservatives to task about Brexit. I suppose we will wait and see do they get any seats or help labour.
Do you think Boris statements about when they are leaving/ Canada style agreement are ment for Brexit Party voter's/Nigel.
I don't think there is any chance Corbyn will become PM![/quote]
I think one of the weak points about the Brexit party is that it is a one issue party. One issue parties rarely do well anywhere and it is foolish to ignore bread and butter issues which are part of every election campaign.
I would not discount a Corbyn government. It is unlikely he will have a Labour majoriyy but he might be able to lead a pro EU coalition relying On the Scottish Nationalists for his majority. A Labour government with such radical spending plans as they currently advocate could lead to an economic crisis in the UK that will of course affect us in Ireland. I have read scores of Irish newspaper scare stories about the dangers of Brexit but have seen none about the risks of a Corbyn government
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Post by cato on Nov 27, 2019 13:30:50 GMT
I believe this election is easily the most important UK election since at least 1945. Britian has a choice to embrace a radical leftist response to the crisis in global capitalism or adopt a new independent economic pro free market version for itself.
Boris Johnson has numerous flaws. He is more a classic liberal nationalist rather than a traditional Tory . Indeed more than one commentator has compared him to the flamboyant Benjamin Disraeli.
Jeremy Corbyn has advocated widespread nationalisation on a scale not seen since the war. He consciously sees himself as some one wishing to roll back the legacy of Thatcherism. Many young people who get low pay and have little chance at acquiring property seem to be attracted to his promise of tax the wealthy to pay for all the important things lacking in a civilised state. The myth that it is possible to avoid taxing the little people and the middling classes is a potent one. It is naive however to think multinationals (if they stay) will not pass on tax costs to their customers.
Corbyn also wants full decriminalisation of the already liberal abortion laws and seeks to eliminate all tax breaks in favour of marriage. These are relatively minor at this stage but Corbyn wants to get rid of them to promote "equality".His support of radical terrorist groups including the provos is well known. Indeed he backs every cause except Britians it seems.
His recent refusal to condemn clearly antisemitism in his party is chilling. There are relatively few Jews in the UK . Anti semitism largely originates in radical Islamic circles and their leftist sympathisers.These much larger pools of potential voters are the real cynical reason for the mealy mouthed two faced approach to the Jewish people.
In addition to the above Corbyn is posing as a neutral umpire on the issue of the age Brexit despite his life long opposition to the European union project. Whether or not this strange desire to remain above the fray will work remains to be seen.
The UK is at a cross roads. The upcoming election will affect our neighbour and
us for a long time to come.
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Post by cato on Nov 27, 2019 14:12:49 GMT
The interview on BBC tv where Corbyn was grilled by Andrew Neil may go down in tv history as a classic of political interviewing. You can see how not to respond to an interview. Very entertaining. I suspect it will be all over you tube.
Andrew Neil is generally right leaning but forensic in his questioning. Boris Johnson is a notorious waffler and can't be looking forward to his interview next week.
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Post by cato on Dec 7, 2019 20:41:04 GMT
The UK General election campaign has been surprisingly low key and underwhelming despite the issues at stake. Partially this is because some of the more colourful Tories like Jacob Rees Mogg and Michael Gove have been muzzled in case they say something controversial.
The Irish media has ignored the economic impact of a far left victory obsessed as they are about Brexit. The once philo-semitic Labour party is now one of Europe's openly anti-Semitic parties. Many will still vote for it despite that stunning fact. Some will vote Labour ignoring that stance some will vote Labour because it is antisemitic.
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Post by Séamus on Dec 8, 2019 8:04:45 GMT
The UK General election campaign has been surprisingly low key and underwhelming despite the issues at stake. Partially this is because some of the more colourful Tories like Jacob Rees Mogg and Michael Gove have been muzzled in case they say something controversial. The Irish media has ignored the economic impact of a far left victory obsessed as they are about Brexit. The once philo-semitic Labour party is now one of Europe's openly anti-Semitic parties. Many will still vote for it despite that stunning fact. Some will vote Labour ignoring that stance some will vote Labour because it is antisemitic. Ann Widdecombe,despite being herself largely focused on the EU issue as a 'convert' member of Farange's party,recently used her Express column to comment on the Liberal Democrats' hard-nosed abortion policy : "if further proof was needed that the LDs live up to neither part of their name,then the treatment of Roman Catholic Robert Flello would have provided it. They were glad enough to have him when he defected from Labour but have now deselected him because he supports neither abortion nor gay marriage...there is no such thing as respect for conscience in their nasty authoritarian party...Jo Swinson Does that mean that there is no room for Muslims in your party? If so please say so" Of course we've all remarked on the irony of parties and politicians who hold very unIslamic views somehow imagining society becoming more secular or tolerant through favouring immigration from these countries. |
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Post by Stephen on Dec 10, 2019 12:15:50 GMT
The UK General election campaign has been surprisingly low key and underwhelming despite the issues at stake. Partially this is because some of the more colourful Tories like Jacob Rees Mogg and Michael Gove have been muzzled in case they say something controversial. The Irish media has ignored the economic impact of a far left victory obsessed as they are about Brexit. The once philo-semitic Labour party is now one of Europe's openly anti-Semitic parties. Many will still vote for it despite that stunning fact. Some will vote Labour ignoring that stance some will vote Labour because it is antisemitic. I am no fan of Labour or Mr Corbyn. But this anti-Semitism claim is a load of rubbish. They are anti Israel/Zionism. Sadly now a days if anyone says anything against either they are lambasted as a nazis, far right, anti-Semitic or any number of things. |
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Post by cato on Dec 10, 2019 23:43:33 GMT
The UK General election campaign has been surprisingly low key and underwhelming despite the issues at stake. Partially this is because some of the more colourful Tories like Jacob Rees Mogg and Michael Gove have been muzzled in case they say something controversial. The Irish media has ignored the economic impact of a far left victory obsessed as they are about Brexit. The once philo-semitic Labour party is now one of Europe's openly anti-Semitic parties. Many will still vote for it despite that stunning fact. Some will vote Labour ignoring that stance some will vote Labour because it is antisemitic. I am no fan of Labour or Mr Corbyn. But this anti-Semitism claim is a load of rubbish. They are anti Israel/Zionism. Sadly now a days if anyone says anything against either they are lambasted as a nazis, far right, anti-Semitic or any number of things. Israel uniquely attracts a band of critics who never admit they may have less than pure motives . They rarely have the same strength of feeling about brutal Islamic states or the widespread slaughter of Moslems by Islamic governments for some strange reason. It is either naive or malicious to deny the growth of Jew hating in Europe. Many synagogues in Europe require armed police guards. I was shocked to see this in Berlin a few years ago. Jewish graves are regularly desecrated and many Jews do not wear skull caps in public for fear of assault. Some of this prejudice is from the far right. Some shamefully comes from traditionalist catholic circles. The Corbyn variety comes from a left that vilifies Israel. There are also electoral advantages in appealing to Islamic communities in the UK. The Jews in contrast are electorally negligible. The argument that honest critics of Israel are only opposed to "Zionism" ignores the religious basis for a promised land for the Jews. Many critics deny the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state. That is antisemitic. Claiming that concerns about Corbyn are "rubbish" is strange. Why is he so reluctant to say Jew hating is wrong? Any normal leader would have no problem with saying this. If the Jewish chief Rabbi calls Corbyn out as anti Semitic or as a sneaking regarder for those who hate Jews I have no doubt his fears are real. |
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Post by cato on Dec 12, 2019 22:24:02 GMT
It looks like Boris is back with a large majority of 75 plus seats according to exit polls.
I suspect the last three years of nasty remainer sabotage inside and outside parliament have caused great revulsion among the wider electorate. The Liberal democrats look like losing half their seats. They ran on a policy of cancelling Brexit .
This is a good result for those who are concerned about the arrogance of the EU.
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