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Post by cato on Oct 31, 2020 13:47:20 GMT
Any thoughts from anyone on the US election on Tuesday?
Predictions and reflections.....
I am planning an all nighter on the sofa. Now that I think of it I regularly sit up watching late night election results. How did I end up like this?
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Post by Maolsheachlann on Oct 31, 2020 14:01:39 GMT
I'm feeling nervous about it. I'm fully expecting a Biden victory but then, I am always pessimistic.
I've been resolving not to follow it, but I will probably yield to temptation.
Tinged with sadness because my father would have been utterly immersed in it, as he was four years ago.
I'm telling myself that, even if Trump is beaten, at least he got to push the Supreme Court in a more conservative direction (as well as many lower courts, as I've heard) and he has changed the direction of American conservatism. Hopefully the wimpy Mitt Romney brand of Republicanism has been vanquished for the near future.
Steve Bannon predicts Trump will run again in 2024 if he loses this time.
It's always dicey praying for political candidates. I've been praying for a Trump win with the caveat: "Thy will be done".
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Post by rogerbuck on Oct 31, 2020 14:36:50 GMT
If Trump wins, it will be a greater upset than 2016 of the polls - maybe the greatest poll failure ever.
I note that Nate Silver of 5.38 came closest of mainstream sources to predicting a Trump win in 2016. He gave him a 29% chance then. He's down to 11% now.
I get the impression there are many Americans expecting the polls to be *that* wrong and am slightly concerned there may be a "bubble" over there where people only listen to one type of media predicting a Trump victory.
Just an impression. Maybe some Americans here might usefully correct my impression?
And yes, Mal, thank God for the Supreme Court and any changes to Romney-ism!
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Post by Tomas on Oct 31, 2020 14:43:37 GMT
If they not manage to somehow rig the result (totally impossible?) my bets would be for another Republican victory. Polls tends to be showing numbers off the mark just as much as mass media does bend the scope for analysis in their turn.
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Post by cato on Nov 3, 2020 17:14:47 GMT
The odds are against a Trump victory tonight but when you consider his roller coaster style of government , probably the most polarising presidency ever, and the Covid disaster internationally and nationally it is truly amazing Trump is polling so highly.
Remember in Ireland pundits said Sinn Fein "won" with a quarter of the votes at our general election earlier this year. No Irish party can dream of getting Trumps support levels. Had the Democrats not chosen such a weak establishment figure as Biden and had they not travelled to identarian ideologues of race and leftism they should be miles ahead of Trump. To some extent this is their election to lose as it was in 2016. Instead of choosing an energetic patriotic middle American Apple pie unity candidate they went for a tired party hack with memory issues.
A third of the Senate is up for grabs too tonight. If it remains Republican it could be a restraint on many of the plans of a Biden presidency. Conversely should Trump win and lose congress and the Senate government might simply grind to a halt.
Tonight and the next few days and maybe weeks will be interesting.
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Post by Maolsheachlann on Nov 3, 2020 17:33:14 GMT
The odds are against a Trump victory tonight but when you consider his roller coaster style of government , probably the most polarising presidency ever, and the Covid disaster internationally and nationally it is truly amazing Trump is polling so highly. Remember in Ireland pundits said Sinn Fein "won" with a quarter of the votes. No Irish party can dream of getting Trumps support levels. Had the Democrats not chosen such a weak establishment figure as Biden and had they not travelled to identarian ideologues of race and leftism they should be miles ahead of Trump. To some extent this is their election to lose as it was in 2016. Instead of choosing an energetic patriotic middle American Apple pie unity candidate they went for a tired party hack with memory issues. A third of the Senate is up for grabs too tonight. If it remains Republican it could be a restraint on many of the plans of a Biden presidency. Conversely should Trump win and lose congress and the Senate government might simply grind to a halt. Tonight and the next few days and maybe weeks will be interesting. Too interesting for my liking. It's nerve-wracking stuff! |
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Post by cato on Nov 4, 2020 9:03:37 GMT
I stayed up to 5am. It's been an amazing turn around. The polls were badly out. Again.
It's real knife edge stuff. I reckon 50/50.
The famous blue wave also failed to materialise. Again.
Trump has an obnoxious personality but he is an uncanny political operator. And for the second time in a row the Democrats picked a lousy candidate. With all his talk of legal challenges I think even Trump can't believe he may win at this stage. He should just keep quiet and wait.
Should he win expect the biggest liberal and media meltdown ever......
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Post by Séamus on Nov 4, 2020 11:36:44 GMT
The odds are against a Trump victory tonight but when you consider his roller coaster style of government , probably the most polarising presidency ever, and the Covid disaster internationally and nationally it is truly amazing Trump is polling so highly. Remember in Ireland pundits said Sinn Fein "won" with a quarter of the votes at our general election earlier this year. No Irish party can dream of getting Trumps support levels. Had the Democrats not chosen such a weak establishment figure as Biden and had they not travelled to identarian ideologues of race and leftism they should be miles ahead of Trump. To some extent this is their election to lose as it was in 2016. Instead of choosing an energetic patriotic middle American Apple pie unity candidate they went for a tired party hack with memory issues. A third of the Senate is up for grabs too tonight. If it remains Republican it could be a restraint on many of the plans of a Biden presidency. Conversely should Trump win and lose congress and the Senate government might simply grind to a halt. Tonight and the next few days and maybe weeks will be interesting. The tightness of the race is uplifting. It may be less of an issue in a bigger country like US,but the Australian Labor party had a shock loss at the last election largely due to having a coal and fossil fuels policy similar to Biden's. Uplifting also to see coverage of public mass in Nice's Notre Dame and prayer services in Vienna's St Stephen's. Why does it take psuedo-warfare on their doorsteps to highlight their Catholic heritage? "a voice reaching out in a piercing cry. It stays with you until..." |
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Post by Maolsheachlann on Nov 4, 2020 11:49:25 GMT
It galls me how many channels and news services are calling Trump's accusations of voter fraud "unfounded", "false", etc. How do they know? Is it really impartial to be so definitive?
There also seems some wilful obtuseness, with some news reports suggesting that Trump doesn't want votes tallied. Right or wrong that's obviously not what he's saying. He's saying there's a danger of extra ballots being added surreptitiously.
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Post by Maolsheachlann on Nov 4, 2020 11:50:43 GMT
After all my complaining about Church Militant, it's only fair to admit I was watching their coverage through much of the night. I switched around. They were pretty good on the facts.
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Post by cato on Nov 4, 2020 12:10:47 GMT
Trump has a predictable unfortunate knack of sticking his foot in it . His remarks this morning pouring doubt on a vote that hasnt finished ironically may pour doubt on a potential Trump victory!
Keeping silent would be prudent. I do agree as Maolsheachlann pointed out he was referring to continuing voting. There will be plenty of time and opportunity to investigate this if and when it arises.
The Senate looks like remaining Republican too which is good news. If there is a narrow Biden victory they will feel no obligation to support any of his more controversial measures given his lack of a clear overwhelming mandate.
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Post by Maolsheachlann on Nov 5, 2020 9:45:24 GMT
I posted this on Facebook. I was surprised at some of the people who "liked" it.
"I'm very depressed at what is happening in America. Trump seems to me like the only genuinely anti-establishment politician in my lifetime, in any country I know about. All of the political parties in Ireland stand for the same thing; globalism, basically. Global commerce, global bureaucracy, global monoculture. Political correctness as a tool to this end, breaking up all customs and traditions (especially the family and the nation) like a bulldozer. And the same everywhere I look, including a lot (most?) of the Republican Party in America.
Pope Francis talks about a different vision of globalization, one that respects regional differences and spiritual tradition. A noble dream. But not one that's a live option today.
I don't have any proof there has been electoral fraud. But I can absolutely believe it, just seeing the constant shadow-banning online, the relentless propaganda in the media, advertising, entertainment, etc.
I am still a (half-hearted) democrat because I believe democracy is some kind of curb on the worst excesses of power. Just about. Most politics seems like a soap opera to me. Trump was different. Yes, he's a barbarian. So was Charlemagne. I'm very dejected."
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Post by Antaine on Nov 9, 2020 20:18:19 GMT
It's very clear the media - not just in the US - is determined to drum the word "baseless" into people's minds. That specific word they have been very keen to ephasise to people. I think it was on Sky News a reporter was talking to someone, then stopped briefly to physically turn to the camera to remind views the accusations were "baseless".
It's also interesting, of course, that the media will only talk about observers being blocked (and even that they lie about), but not the more sinister things. Dead people voting, stacks of ballots appearing overnight when counting should have stopped, some stacks being 100% Biden(statistically impossible from a pool of thousands) or at least suspiciously high, apparently these things only happening in States where Biden is lagging behind, voter turn out being suspiciously high in some areas compared to previous elections with one area being over 100%(?!), and a machine that "accidentally" switched some Trump votes to Biden (the people behind the software oddly enough having connections to the Clinton Foundation.)
Either this is one of the greatest misunderstandings in history, or greatest frauds. Either way, it's pretty huge, and the media is clearly in on it. But everyone's decided that they hate Trump so much that they don't care, I guess. Even Hibernicus over at the Catholic forums apparently had to think long and hard about the fact that voting Trump would probably be better than voting for the Democrat party, regardless of their nominee.
In a sentence, intentional or accidental (and I don't believe in accidents on this scale), there is something abnormal afoot, and nobody has the stones to call a spade a spade because Trump is the bad guy; so I am to believe.
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Post by cato on Nov 10, 2020 14:55:18 GMT
I didn't watch any RTE coverage of the vote as they have gone beyond being biased. They are basically cheer leaders for the democrats. In recent days I have tuned in occasionally only to be annoyed by their constant editorialising when it comes to contested issues. They constantly refer to Trumps complaints as "baseless". If it's before the law how do they know?
I do believe it is practically impossible for Trump to overturn this result but if there are substantial legal concerns then let them be heard. It does appear to me Biden has a clear majority regardless of concerns in certain districts.
Many democrats who cried foul over the last result in 2016 and spent the last 4 years undermining the result are now very black and white on accepting the vote this time around.
In 1960 JFK won by a tiny margin. Most historians accept the story of Joe Kennedy senior engaging in corruption with organised crime to buy the vote in certain vital localities. The loser Richard Nixon knew of this at the time and conceded anyway for the good of America and democracy.
Nixon was elected a decade later twice before it ended in tears.
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Post by Tomas on Nov 10, 2020 19:28:03 GMT
It's very clear the media - not just in the US - is determined to drum the word "baseless" into people's minds. That specific word they have been very keen to ephasise to people. I think it was on Sky News a reporter was talking to someone, then stopped briefly to physically turn to the camera to remind views the accusations were "baseless". It's also interesting, of course, that the media will only talk about observers being blocked (and even that they lie about), but not the more sinister things. Dead people voting, stacks of ballots appearing overnight when counting should have stopped, some stacks being 100% Biden(statistically impossible from a pool of thousands) or at least suspiciously high, apparently these things only happening in States where Biden is lagging behind, voter turn out being suspiciously high in some areas compared to previous elections with one area being over 100%(?!), and a machine that "accidentally" switched some Trump votes to Biden (the people behind the software oddly enough having connections to the Clinton Foundation.) Either this is one of the greatest misunderstandings in history, or greatest frauds. Either way, it's pretty huge, and the media is clearly in on it. But everyone's decided that they hate Trump so much that they don't care, I guess. Even Hibernicus over at the Catholic forums apparently had to think long and hard about the fact that voting Trump would probably be better than voting for the Democrat party, regardless of their nominee. In a sentence, intentional or accidental (and I don't believe in accidents on this scale), there is something abnormal afoot, and nobody has the stones to call a spade a spade because Trump is the bad guy; so I am to believe. Here is one of many articles from the Republican perspective. There will be many days before some of the more crucial attempts in cheating will be addressed in legal terms. Thus the sickening media drives, and public liability to just go along with it, may well end up in a sinister "winner" having to face the facts that is telling a less sunny story. It wasn´t just minor states like Nevada, and medium ones like Michigan or Pennsylvania, but in many places. www.nationalreview.com/2020/11/an-election-day-bridge-too-far/Those peculiar oddities, and the political machinations preceeding, can never be happening by chance. The article tells about both particulars and some of the wider general problems, and ends with a rather dark note on America being degraded to a third world level. If they could be getting away with fraud on this scale there would be a legal system no much better than an average banana republic. Then again, they already do get away with murder on children now up to legitimate birthday, letting child abusers roam free, pushing for really lousy vaccine campagins ahead, spread money in the Globalist cult of perversity and death, so heaven knows if the Conservatives and "old" Liberals will prevail against it, if the rest of the world simply adhere to the media support lies. |
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